Numbers Rule Your World: The Hidden Influence of Probability and Statistics on Everything You Do by Kaiser Fung

Author:Kaiser Fung
Language: eng
Format: mobi
Tags: Statistics - Social Aspects, Forecasting, Statistics, Social Science, Social Aspects, Business & Economics, General, Probability & Statistics, Operations Research, Probabilities - Social Aspects, Mathematics, Probabilities
ISBN: 9780071626538
Publisher: McGraw-Hill
Published: 2010-01-25T00:00:00+00:00

Some dismiss false negatives as victimless errors. Not true. As Michael Johnson, the superlative sprinter with the golden Nike spikes, wrote, “the athletes who finished behind [the winner who cheated] will never experience the glory or recoup the financial benefit they deserved for their hard work.” To his credit, Johnson saw the problem of false negatives. A count of the victims of Marion Jones had to start with her relay teammates (who were required to return their medals), and then there were all the silver medalists who should have won gold, all the bronze medalists silver, and all the fourth-place finishers bronze. All waited seven years to learn they had been cheated. (In a sardonic twist, some “victims” turned out to be cheats, too. For example, four of the other seven finalists who raced with Ben Johnson have since been exposed as dopers.)

Many athletes get away with cheating. In the anti-doping community, this statement is not controversial. In a review of drug testing for the New York Times, Professor Charles Yesalis disclosed, “It is virtually impossible to mistakenly identify a substance if a person tests positive for it. [However,] it has been proven that testing cannot catch all substance abusers.” Dr. Rasmus Damsgaard, who ran anti-doping programs for professional skiing and cycling teams, estimated that “maybe hundreds, maybe even thousands of EPO positive samples are lying around in WADA-accredited labs,” that is, after having passed testing. Poring over past doping cases, perhaps David Letterman would feel inspired to make one of his famous Top Ten lists for easy tips to produce a false negative. If so, he might consult the following methods that were actually used, as presented by the athletes with firsthand experience:

10. When the tester is looking away, stir in a little whiskey, and shake it. (Irish swimmer Michelle Smith)

9. Misdirect the testers to the wrong place, and then stage a motorcycle accident to avoid the out-of-competition test. (Sprinter Konstantinos Kederis, also known as “the greatest living Greek”)

8. Hold a friend’s pee inside your body, release quickly when the tester shows up. I get extra credit for being cooperative. (Russian track star Yelena Soboleva and six teammates)

7. Believe in human frailty. If a clueless lab technician freezes one of the samples, the lab cannot run a test on it. (Tyler Hamilton)

6. It’s all about timing! Know how long it takes for the stuff to clear. (American sprinter Kelli White)

5. Easy does it for guys. Wear a prosthetic and give them fake pee. (Customers of the Whizzinator and similar products)

4. Be ahead of the curve; use only the newest designer stuff. They don’t know what it is, so they don’t test for it, wink wink. (BALCO athletes)

3. It’s a natural high. The testosterone is all yours. You’re just more manly than the competition. (American cyclist Floyd Landis)

2. It’s so easy to walk right through the front door. Apply for the pass to cheat; it’s called the therapeutic-use exemption. You have asthma, you can dope. (Many athletes)

And the number one easy tip to produce a false negative is .

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